Not every weather situation and variable (temperature, precipitation, wind, etc.) is equally easy to predict. The forecast reliability indicates our degree of trust in the entire forecast. If the various weather models for certain weather conditions “agree”, the reliability can be said to be high. If however the weather is not “stable”, i.e. not so easily predictable, the reliability will be accordingly lower.
We recommend the following:
- Reliability of greater than 80% is said to be high. The forecast can be taken at its word, even if a surprise is always possible.
- Reliability of between 60% and 80% is regarded as medium. The forecast may serve as a basis for planning, but an alternative strategy should be prepared.
- Reliability of 60% is classified as low. Although the predicted weather type corresponds to the most probable of all the possible weather scenarios, it is not advisable to rely on this forecast for planning critical activities. It is recommended to consult subsequent forecasts.
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